Bitcoin ETFs vs. Gold ETFs: Asset Allocation Contest

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas projects U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could amass assets three times those of gold ETFs within three to five years, driven by younger investors treating Bitcoin as a store of value. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have gathered roughly $120 billion in total AUM with about $38 billion in net inflows by mid-2025, far exceeding initial first-year forecasts.

The comparison notes gold’s head start—GLD debuted in 2004 and it took roughly 22 years for gold ETFs to hit comparable milestones—yet recent weeks show investors buy both: in the week ending August 26, 2026, Bitcoin and gold ETFs drew a combined $7 billion (GLD $3.4 billion, BlackRock’s IBIT $1.5 billion). Bloomberg highlights Bitcoin’s broader portfolio use cases and the ETF wrapper’s role in mainstreaming access, while JPMorgan analysts warn that if ETF hedging eases, Bitcoin could receive more support than gold.

JPMorgan hedging caveat

JPMorgan said Bitcoin could outperform gold if ETF hedging demand eases, emphasizing the outlook depends on hedging flows rather than valuation alone. The recent notices reinforce that the bank’s view is conditional on changes in ETF hedging activity.